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000
ABNT20 KNHC 232334
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the
Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern
Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the
adjacent western Atlantic waters.  The system has changed little in
organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend.  The low is forecast
to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida
through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the
Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday.  After
that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the
southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and
the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm
activity is limited at this time.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)

...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 23
 the center of Chantal was located near 36.0, -40.8
 with movement S at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 232033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019

...CHANTAL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 40.8W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 40.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the southwest and west is expected over the weekend, followed
by a slow motion toward the northwest Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery shows no organized shower activity associated with
Chantal, and the system is expected to decay to a remnant low
pressure area this evening.  The remnant low could dissipate by late
Sunday or Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 232033
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019
2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  40.8W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  40.8W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N  40.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.5N  41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.3N  42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N  43.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.7N  44.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N  40.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019  

589 
WTNT44 KNHC 232034
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019

Chantal is now producing only isolated showers and thunderstorms,
and the low-level circulation is gradually becoming less well
defined.  The depression should decay to a remnant low during the
next several hours.  The remnant low is expected to dissipate by
72 h, which again is unchanged from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now 170/6.  Chantal or its remnants should
turn southwest and west during the next 24-48 hours as the
subtropical ridge re-forms north and east of the system.  After
that, a slow motion toward the northwest is expected before the
system dissipates completely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 36.0N  40.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 35.5N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1800Z 35.3N  42.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z 35.4N  43.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 35.7N  44.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 232033
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics

Tropical Depression Chantal 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:35:39 GMT

Tropical Depression Chantal 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 21:24:26 GMT

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