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000
ABNT20 KNHC 220544
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Jose, located about 135 miles southeast of Nantucket,
Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located about 45 miles
east-southeast of Grand Turk Island.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose (AT2/AL122017)

...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...
 As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Sep 22
 the center of Jose was located near 39.6, -68.5
 with movement W at 2 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 987 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Public Advisory Number 67A

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 220539
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 67A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
200 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 68.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose
was located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 68.5 West. Jose is
moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h).  Little motion is
expected for the next 48 hours, and Jose is forecast to meander well
offshore of the coast of southeastern New England during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next two days.

Jose is a large system.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.  A sustained wind of 41
mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported
at an unofficial observing site on Block Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area this morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next couple of days.  For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
1 to 2 inches across Cape Cod and the offshore islands of Martha's
Vineyard and Nantucket bringing storm total accumulations towards 5
inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Advisory Number 67

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 220245
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  67
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  68.4W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......190NE 130SE 160SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  68.4W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  68.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N  68.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.5N  69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.3N  68.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.1N  67.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.8N  66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N  68.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion Number 67

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 220250
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  67
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

The center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past
12 hours.  The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical
cyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well
to the west and northwest of the center.  Based on this, Jose has
been declared post-tropical.  Surface observations from extreme
southeast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical
storm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical
storm warnings in those locations remain in place.  The National
Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the
threat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided.

The initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent
ASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW
quadrant.  No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and
Jose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters
of the North Atlantic for the next 3 days.  Most of the global
models still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h.

Jose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift
slowly westward.  Very little change has been made to the track
forecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will
continue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually
dissipates around day 4.  The NHC forecast remains close to the
various track consensus aids.

Based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii
were extended in the NW and NE quadrants.  However this wind appears
to be primarily occuring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 39.5N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/1200Z 39.6N  68.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/0000Z 39.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1200Z 39.3N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  24/0000Z 39.1N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 38.8N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 67

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 220246
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  67      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BOSTON MA      34  4   5( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  7   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  5   5(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ALBANY NY      34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  7   8(15)   1(16)   X(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ISLIP NY       34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 05:45:02 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 03:23:06 GMT

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at  1101 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...EYE OF MARIA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
 As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
 the center of Maria was located near 21.2, -70.5
 with movement NW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 959 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 24A

Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220537
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...EYE OF MARIA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 70.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 70.5 West. Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (12 km/h), but a motion toward the
north-northwest is anticipated later today and Saturday. On the
forecast track, Maria's eye will gradually move near or just east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
today and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the
Dominican Republic, but should begin to subside during the next
several hours.  Hurricane conditions are spreading into the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue
through today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
central Bahamas beginning late today.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 40 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and
Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to
8 inches
Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will
reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions
of the United States southeastern coast today.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 24

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 220245
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  70.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  70.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  70.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N  70.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N  72.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.7N  72.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.3N  72.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.2N  71.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  70.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 24

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220246
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Satellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and is
surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane has penetrated the eye a couple of times this evening
and the crew reported that the eye had a diameter of 35 nmi and that
it has become better defined. Flight-level winds increased a little
bit during the last penetration and supported an intensity of 110 or
115 kt. At this time, I prefer the keep the winds at 110 kt since
the SFMR measurements were a little lower.  The central pressure is
estimated at 955 mb.

The atmosphere diagnosed by the models, as well as a warm ocean
along the forecast track, should favor an increase in intensity.
However, most of the models, suggest that Maria will change little
and will remain a category 3 hurricane for the next day or two. The
NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus ICON and shows no
significant change through that time. Gradual weakening should
begin later in the forecast period as Maria reaches higher latitudes
and cooler waters.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Maria is moving
toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The track of the
hurricane has been and will be controlled by the flow around a
narrow subtropical ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. Maria is
reaching the western edge of that high, and this should cause the
hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward with no
significant change in forward speed for the next 3 days. After that
time, Maria should encounter the mid-latitude southwesterly flow and
recurve. The reliable guidance is remarkably clustered during the
next 4 days. This significantly increases the confidence in the
track forecast which is in between the multi-model consensus TVCX
and the HFIP corrected consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local
officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of
the southeastern United States on Friday.  These swells are likely
to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the
coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain
well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 21.0N  70.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 22.0N  70.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 23.5N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 25.1N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 26.7N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 29.3N  72.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 31.2N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 220245
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  2   7( 9)  14(23)   5(28)   4(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 21  33(54)   3(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
MAYAGUANA      50  2   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRAND TURK     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     50 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GRAND TURK     64 57   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Maria Graphics

Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 05:43:04 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 03:29:52 GMT

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