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000 ABNT20 KNHC 220544 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose, located about 135 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located about 45 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose (AT2/AL122017)
...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Jose was located near 39.6, -68.5 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Public Advisory Number 67A
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220539 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 67A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 ...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.6N 68.5W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose was located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 68.5 West. Jose is moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little motion is expected for the next 48 hours, and Jose is forecast to meander well offshore of the coast of southeastern New England during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next two days. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial observing site on Block Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next couple of days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across Cape Cod and the offshore islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket bringing storm total accumulations towards 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Advisory Number 67
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220245 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 67 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 68.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......190NE 130SE 160SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 68.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 68.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.3N 68.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.1N 67.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.8N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 68.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion Number 67
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220250 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 The center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past 12 hours. The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical cyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well to the west and northwest of the center. Based on this, Jose has been declared post-tropical. Surface observations from extreme southeast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical storm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical storm warnings in those locations remain in place. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the threat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided. The initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent ASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW quadrant. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and Jose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters of the North Atlantic for the next 3 days. Most of the global models still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h. Jose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift slowly westward. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will continue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually dissipates around day 4. The NHC forecast remains close to the various track consensus aids. Based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii were extended in the NW and NE quadrants. However this wind appears to be primarily occuring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 39.3N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/0000Z 39.1N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 38.8N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 67
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
000
FONT12 KNHC 220246
PWSAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 67
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YARMOUTH NS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA ME 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CONCORD NH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WORCESTER MA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BOSTON MA 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 7 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HARTFORD CT 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW LONDON CT 34 5 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ALBANY NY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 7 8(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
ISLIP NY 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 05:45:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 03:23:06 GMT
Local Statement for Boston, MA
Issued at 1101 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
...EYE OF MARIA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Maria was located near 21.2, -70.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 24A
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220537 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...EYE OF MARIA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 70.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 70.5 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (12 km/h), but a motion toward the north-northwest is anticipated later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will gradually move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic, but should begin to subside during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 24
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220245 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 70.2W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 70.2W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 70.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.7N 72.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.3N 72.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.2N 71.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 70.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 24
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220246 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Satellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and is surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has penetrated the eye a couple of times this evening and the crew reported that the eye had a diameter of 35 nmi and that it has become better defined. Flight-level winds increased a little bit during the last penetration and supported an intensity of 110 or 115 kt. At this time, I prefer the keep the winds at 110 kt since the SFMR measurements were a little lower. The central pressure is estimated at 955 mb. The atmosphere diagnosed by the models, as well as a warm ocean along the forecast track, should favor an increase in intensity. However, most of the models, suggest that Maria will change little and will remain a category 3 hurricane for the next day or two. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus ICON and shows no significant change through that time. Gradual weakening should begin later in the forecast period as Maria reaches higher latitudes and cooler waters. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The track of the hurricane has been and will be controlled by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. Maria is reaching the western edge of that high, and this should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward with no significant change in forward speed for the next 3 days. After that time, Maria should encounter the mid-latitude southwesterly flow and recurve. The reliable guidance is remarkably clustered during the next 4 days. This significantly increases the confidence in the track forecast which is in between the multi-model consensus TVCX and the HFIP corrected consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.0N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.0N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 23.5N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 26.7N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 29.3N 72.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 31.2N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
000
FONT15 KNHC 220245
PWSAT5
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
SAN SALVADOR 34 2 7( 9) 14(23) 5(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAYAGUANA 34 21 33(54) 3(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
MAYAGUANA 50 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MAYAGUANA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND TURK 50 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
GRAND TURK 64 57 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LES CAYES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE BEATA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Maria Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 05:43:04 GMT
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