Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200525
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Peter, located a few hundred miles east of the northernmost 
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located several hundred 
miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic 
several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development 
over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form 
later this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph 
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants 
of Odette, is located a couple of hundred miles southeast of 
Newfoundland.  This low could acquire some subtropical 
characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly 
eastward and then southeastward over warmer waters across the 
north-central Atlantic Ocean.  Additional information on this 
system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rose are issued under WMO 
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rose are issued under WMO 
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PETER HAS CHANGED LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
 the center of Peter was located near 19.1, -59.5
 with movement WNW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 200841
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
 
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PETER HAS CHANGED LITTLE...
...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
EARLY THIS WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 59.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 59.5 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in
forward speed on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km),
primarily to the northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm 
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally 
higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward 
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico 
through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small 
stream flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern
Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by
midweek.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 200840
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  59.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  59.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  58.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N  61.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N  63.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.4N  65.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.4N  67.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.2N  68.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N  68.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.2N  67.8W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 28.5N  66.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  59.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 200848 CCA
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number   7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Corrected name of storm in first and second paragraphs
 
Peter is a strongly sheared tropical storm. Reconnaissance wind 
data, conventional satellite imagery, and passive microwave 
satellite data indicate that Peter's center is located just to the 
west of the deep convection. Data from the aircraft support holding 
the intensity at 45 kt for now based on 925-mb flight-level and 
SFMR winds of 53 kt and 41 kt, respectively, on their last leg when 
the aircraft came in from the northeast. The central pressure had 
also increased only slightly to 1006 mb.

Peter has continued to move west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. There 
are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or 
reasoning. Peter is expected to move around the southwestern and 
western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next couple of 
days, followed by a slow northward motion on days 3-5 as the 
cyclone moves through a weakness in the ridge induced by the 
southward-moving former Tropical Storm Odette. The new NHC track 
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies 
just to the east of the tightly packed consensus track models. 
 
Some fluctuations in intensity will be possible during the next 
24-36 hours owing to 5-10 kt fluctuations in the magnitude and also 
the direction of the deep-layer vertical wind shear. However, by 48 
hours and beyond, a slow weakening trend is expected due to the 
shear increasing from the southwest and west-southwest of near 30 
kt. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an 
update of the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and 
HCCA intensity consensus models.
 
Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no
tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time.
However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when
Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.
 
 
Key Messages:

Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may 
lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday 
across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward 
Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 19.1N  59.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 19.7N  61.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 20.4N  63.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 21.4N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 22.4N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 23.2N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 24.2N  68.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 26.2N  67.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 28.5N  66.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 200841
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021               
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Peter Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:42:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 09:23:22 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)

...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
 the center of Rose was located near 15.9, -32.6
 with movement NW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 200842
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
 
...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 32.6W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 32.6 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion 
at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few 
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening will be possible today. By Tuesday, however, 
upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is
forecast to begin a slow weakening trend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 200842
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  32.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  32.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  32.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N  33.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N  35.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N  36.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N  37.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N  38.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.2N  39.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N  41.3W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N  40.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  32.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200859
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
 
Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center 
located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on 
an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also 
revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was 
located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication 
of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the 
cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this 
advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 
35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are 
higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due 
to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column.
 
The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/13 kt.  Rose is 
expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and 
western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few 
days.  By day 4 and beyond, a mid- to upper-level trough over the 
north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the 
cyclone to turn northward.  The latest NHC model guidance remains in 
excellent agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, but 
then diverge significantly thereafter owing to whether Rose weakens 
to shallow system or remains a little stringer and deeper. The 
weaker solutions go more toward the northwest and the stronger 
solutions take Rose northeastward. The NHC forecast track on days 4 
and 5 is a blend of these two extremes. 
 
Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical 
wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to 
occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected 
to induce some gradual weakening.  Rose is forecast to weaken to a 
tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest 
that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that 
Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast 
period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 15.9N  32.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 17.5N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 19.8N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 21.7N  36.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 23.0N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 24.2N  38.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 25.2N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 27.3N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 29.2N  40.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 200842
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021               
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Rose Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:43:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 09:29:32 GMT