Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210204
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the small low pressure
area located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
has acquired a well-defined circulation and is producing tropical-
storm-force winds.  As a result, advisories on Tropical Storm
Chantal will be initiated at 11 PM AST (0300 UTC).  This system is
moving eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php .

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm Chantal (AT4/AL042019)

...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 20
 the center of Chantal was located near 40.2, -56.2
 with movement E at 22 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 56.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm
Chantal was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 56.2 West.
Chantal is moving toward the east near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 210231
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019
0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  56.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  85 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  56.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N  57.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.3N  52.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 40.2N  48.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.0N  44.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.4N  42.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.9N  42.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 34.6N  44.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 36.0N  44.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N  56.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 210232
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019

Recent scatterometer wind data and passive microwave satellite
images indicate that the small low pressure system that the NHC has
been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined
surface wind circulation and contains tropical-storm-force winds
south of the cyclone's center. Therefore, the low has become
Tropical Storm Chantal.

The initial motion estimate is 085/19 kt. NHC model guidance is in
excellent agreement that Chantal will move eastward around the
northern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and gradually slow
down during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast
to drop southward around the eastern portion of the ridge, possibly
stalling over warmer waters. The NHC forecast track lies close to
the consensus models HCCA and TVCN.

Chantal is expected to remain in a moderate southwesterly to
westerly vertical wind shear regime for the next 48 hours or so,
followed by a significant decrease in the shear through 120 h. After
48 hours, the southward motion is also expected to move Chantal over
warmer water with SSTs around 27C. However, mid-level moisture is
expected to be quite sparse with humidity values forecast to be less
than 40 percent based on the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance.
Therefore, little or no significant intensification is expected
throughout the forecast period, and the official intensity forecast
closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
Although the official forecast calls for Chantal to remain a
tropical cyclone through the 120 h, the abundance of dry air that
the cyclone will be moving through could result in erosion of the
deep convection sooner than currently expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 40.2N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 40.3N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 40.2N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 39.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 37.4N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 34.9N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 34.6N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 36.0N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 210231
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019               
0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Chantal Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 02:34:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 03:24:29 GMT