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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Feb 07 0455 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 07-Feb 09 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 07-Feb 09 2025

             Feb 07       Feb 08       Feb 09
00-03UT       0.67         2.67         1.67     
03-06UT       0.67         3.00         1.33     
06-09UT       1.67         3.00         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         2.33         1.33     
12-15UT       3.67         2.00         1.33     
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         1.33     
18-21UT       2.67         1.33         1.67     
21-00UT       3.00         2.00         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2025

              Feb 07  Feb 08  Feb 09
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms due to the complex cluster of sunspot groups in the NW
Quadrant rotating closer to the western limb and thus a better potential
magnetic connection with Earth.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 06 2025 1104 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2025

              Feb 07        Feb 08        Feb 09
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected through
09 Feb, with a chance for R3 (Strong) events, due to several
magnetically complex sunspot groups.

Sun Images


eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304
 

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

 
SDO/HMI
Continuum
SDO/HMI
Magnetogram
LASCO C2 LASCO C3
 

The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.
 

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

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Solar cycle


Sunspot numbers F10.7CM Radio flux AP
 
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

 
Solar wind Satellite impact Xray flux
 
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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Spacecraft Environmental Anomalies Expert System – Real Time (SEAESRT) is a set of data-driven algorithms that indicate the likelihood of an environment-related anomaly on a geosynchronous satellite. Right: Is the 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast.

Auroral activity


Northern Auroral map Southern Auroral map
 

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie


Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.



Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).


Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

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