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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 08-Oct 10 2024 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 08-Oct 10 2024

             Oct 08       Oct 09       Oct 10
00-03UT       6.67 (G3)    3.00         1.67     
03-06UT       7.33 (G3)    2.33         1.33     
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    2.33         1.33     
09-12UT       4.33         2.00         1.33     
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    1.00         1.33     
15-18UT       3.33         1.67         1.33     
18-21UT       3.33         1.67         1.67     
21-00UT       3.67         1.33         1.67     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are
expected to continue into later 08 Oct due to continued CME influence
and sustained negative Bz.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 08-Oct 10 2024

              Oct 08  Oct 09  Oct 10
S1 or greater   30%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach the S1 (Minor) threshold through 10 Oct due to slightly enhanced
conditions and the flare potential from multiple regions near the
western limb of the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 07 2024 1913 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 08-Oct 10 2024

              Oct 08        Oct 09        Oct 10
R1-R2           75%           75%           70%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with
a chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackout events
through 10 Oct.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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Solar cycle

Sunspot numbers	F10.7CM Radio flux	AP


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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

Solar wind	Satellite impact	Xray flux


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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Spacecraft Environmental Anomalies Expert System – Real Time (SEAESRT) is a set of data-driven algorithms that indicate the likelihood of an environment-related anomaly on a geosynchronous satellite. Right: Is the 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast.

Auroral activity

Northern Auroral map	Southern Auroral map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.

Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).

links

Space Weather links:

Lots of interesting information
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Solar wind
Forecast discussion
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Space Agencies:
European Space Agency (ESA)
Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Russian Space Agency

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Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

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