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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jul 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 14-Jul 16 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 14-Jul 16 2024

             Jul 14       Jul 15       Jul 16
00-03UT       1.00         2.67         2.33     
03-06UT       1.00         3.67         2.33     
06-09UT       1.00         3.00         2.00     
09-12UT       1.67         2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       2.00         2.67         2.33     
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         2.00     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         2.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 Jul due to
positive polarity CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2024

              Jul 14  Jul 15  Jul 16
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will
persist through 16 Jul primarily due to the potential and increasingly
favorable location exhibited by AR 3738.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 14 2024 0234 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2024

              Jul 14        Jul 15        Jul 16
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: A likely chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will
persist through 16 Jul primarily due to the potential and increasingly
favorable location exhibited by AR 3738.

Sun Images

eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

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Solar cycle

Sunspot numbers F10.7CM Radio flux AP
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum in May, 2013.

Solar wind Satellite impact Xray flux
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On the left: Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. Middle: The Spacecraft Environmental Anomalies Expert System – Real Time (SEAESRT) is a set of data-driven algorithms that indicate the likelihood of an environment-related anomaly on a geosynchronous satellite. Right: Is the 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast.

Auroral activity

Northern Auroral map Southern Auroral map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.

Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).


Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).

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