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SPC Day 2 Outlook

Updates are issued at 100 am CST/CDT (0600/0700 UTC) and 1730 UTC - Current UTC time: May 26 2022 3:05 am


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

000
ACUS02 KWNS 251730
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OHIO/EASTERN KENTUCKY AND VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday
over Ohio/eastern Kentucky and parts of northeastern Oregon,
southeastern Washington, and Idaho. Severe wind gusts and large hail
should be the primary severe hazards.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low will move eastward from MO across the lower OH
Valley on Thursday. Enhanced south-southwesterly mid-level flow will
be present from parts of the Southeast into the TN/OH Valleys. An
elongated area of low pressure extending from the mid MS Valley to
the Great Lakes should develop northeastward through the day. The
primary surface low will move northward into Canada, while a
secondary low develops more slowly east-northeastward across the
Midwest. Farther west, upper ridging should generally remain
centered over the Rockies while shifting slowly eastward. A
shortwave trough should move across parts of the Pacific Northwest
through Thursday evening.

...Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop Thursday
afternoon across IL and vicinity in close proximity to the upper low
and surface low. Although instability should remain somewhat weak
across this region owing to fairly limited low-level moisture, cool
mid-level temperatures and sufficient deep-shear may promote loosely
organized cells/clusters capable of producing both marginally severe
hail and strong/gusty winds. This activity is forecast to weaken
Thursday evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Farther east across the OH Valley, both low and mid-level flow are
forecast to be a bit stronger through the day. One or more
thunderstorm clusters should develop over parts of central/eastern
KY and spread northeastward Thursday afternoon. Around 500-1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will likely support
surface-based convection with mainly a scattered damaging wind
threat. Low-level shear also appears adequate for a brief tornado or
two, especially if any supercells can form and remain at least
semi-discrete. The overall severe threat should quickly wane with
eastward extent into WV and western PA Thursday evening as
instability rapidly drops off in the higher terrain.

...Interior Pacific Northwest...
Thunderstorms should develop over parts of eastern OR and vicinity
Thursday afternoon as large-scale ascent preceding an upper trough
overspreads this region. Low-level moisture is forecast to remain
quite limited except for a small part of northeastern OR and
southeastern WA into western ID. Still, diurnal heating should
foster a very well mixed boundary layer by Thursday afternoon, and
deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt will likely support updraft
organization. Isolated to scattered severe winds may occur with any
thunderstorms that form and spread northeastward with time. Isolated
large hail may also occur with any supercell that can be sustained
in the small area that should have greater low-level moisture and
related instability. 

...Southeast...
Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period
Thursday morning over parts of the central Gulf Coast states.
Instability may remain fairly weak through the morning ahead of this
activity even though rich low-level moisture will be present. Still,
deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to maintain
convective organization with the line. Isolated damaging wind gusts
should be the main threat as these thunderstorms spread eastward
from AL into GA and parts of the western Carolinas through Thursday
afternoon/early evening. A brief tornado or two may also occur
mainly Thursday morning, before low-level shear gradually weakens as
a southerly low-level jet lifts northward into the OH Valley. At
this point, confidence is not high enough in a more concentrated
corridor of damaging wind potential to include greater severe
probabilities.

..Gleason.. 05/25/2022

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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