D4 | Saturday May 28 2022 - Sunday May 29 2022 |
D7 | Tuesday May 31 2022 - Wednesday Jun 1 2022 |
D5 | Sunday May 29 2022 - Monday May 30 2022 |
D8 | Wednesday Jun 1 2022 - Thursday Jun 2 2022 |
D6 | Monday May 30 2022 - Tuesday May 31 2022 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
000
ACUS48 KWNS 250816
SWOD48
SPC AC 250814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance is converging towards a scenario in
which the north-central U.S. will be a focus for thunderstorms and a
risk for severe weather beginning this weekend. Models show the
left-exit region of a cyclonically curved upper jet to impinge on
the SD vicinity on Saturday. Boundary-layer moisture will gradually
increase into the weekend beneath a reinvigorated elevated mixed
layer forecast to overspread the central Great Plains northward into
SD on Saturday. A surface boundary and warm-air advection will help
focus storm development both on Saturday and Sunday over parts of
the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. By early next week, some model
spread and uncertainty regarding convective details compel a
predictability-too-low highlight. With those caveats listed, it
seems the severe risk will probably be located from parts of the
central High Plains northward into the Upper Midwest in proximity to
the stronger westerlies.
..Smith.. 05/25/2022
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