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Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

More SPC info on this site: 

SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Aug 2 2021 5:48 am


 

Day 1

D4Thursday Aug 5 2021 - Friday Aug 6 2021 D7Sunday Aug 8 2021 - Monday Aug 9 2021
D5Friday Aug 6 2021 - Saturday Aug 7 2021 D8Monday Aug 9 2021 - Tuesday Aug 10 2021
D6Saturday Aug 7 2021 - Sunday Aug 8 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
281 ACUS48 KWNS 010829 SWOD48 SPC AC 010827 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the Wed/D4 to Fri/D6 period, a front will remain along the Gulf and Mid Atlantic Coasts with an upper trough slowly moving from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Numerous showers and storms will occur near this boundary, though mainly offshore. During this time frame, a shortwave trough will move east out of the Pacific Northwest, reaching the northern Plains by Sat/D7. Low-level moisture and instability may be sufficient for a isolated severe storms, primarily from the eastern Dakotas into MN. Shear will not be particularly strong with this initial wave, with midlevel winds around 35 kt. By Sun/D8, a stronger, progressive shortwave trough will move across MT and into the western Dakotas, with favorable large-scale lift from the Dakotas into MN. Instability will be stronger as well due to a return of 70s F dewpoints. Predictability of such a wave is inherently low at D8, but a Slight Risk could eventually be issued in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2021

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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