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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: May 26 2022 1:44 am


Day 1

D4Saturday May 28 2022 - Sunday May 29 2022 D7Tuesday May 31 2022 - Wednesday Jun 1 2022
D5Sunday May 29 2022 - Monday May 30 2022 D8Wednesday Jun 1 2022 - Thursday Jun 2 2022
D6Monday May 30 2022 - Tuesday May 31 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
000 ACUS48 KWNS 250816 SWOD48 SPC AC 250814 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance is converging towards a scenario in which the north-central U.S. will be a focus for thunderstorms and a risk for severe weather beginning this weekend. Models show the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved upper jet to impinge on the SD vicinity on Saturday. Boundary-layer moisture will gradually increase into the weekend beneath a reinvigorated elevated mixed layer forecast to overspread the central Great Plains northward into SD on Saturday. A surface boundary and warm-air advection will help focus storm development both on Saturday and Sunday over parts of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. By early next week, some model spread and uncertainty regarding convective details compel a predictability-too-low highlight. With those caveats listed, it seems the severe risk will probably be located from parts of the central High Plains northward into the Upper Midwest in proximity to the stronger westerlies. ..Smith.. 05/25/2022

Day 2

Day 3

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