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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Oct 26 2020 12:48 pm


Day 1

D4Thursday Oct 29 2020 - Friday Oct 30 2020 D7Sunday Nov 1 2020 - Monday Nov 2 2020
D5Friday Oct 30 2020 - Saturday Oct 31 2020 D8Monday Nov 2 2020 - Tuesday Nov 3 2020
D6Saturday Oct 31 2020 - Sunday Nov 1 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
725 ACUS48 KWNS 260857 SWOD48 SPC AC 260856 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR DAY ...DISCUSSION... The potential for severe thunderstorms will focus on Thursday (day 4) from the FL Panhandle northward into the southern Appalachians and perhaps into the Mid-Atlantic states, as Zeta accelerates to the northeast ahead of a mid-level low. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding Zeta's track and the degree of destabilization that can occur. In wake of Zeta, a cold front will sweep eastward across the Southeast and move into the western Atlantic early Friday (day 5). Model guidance is in good agreement in depicting no appreciable return of a destabilizing warm sector into the Gulf Coast states and eastern U.S. As a result, a quiescent pattern for severe activity will likely begin Friday (day 5) and continue through the end of the extended period. ..Smith.. 10/26/2020

Day 2

Day 3

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