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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Apr 21 2024 2:04 am


Day 1

D4Tuesday Apr 23 2024 - Wednesday Apr 24 2024 D7Friday Apr 26 2024 - Saturday Apr 27 2024
D5Wednesday Apr 24 2024 - Thursday Apr 25 2024 D8Saturday Apr 27 2024 - Sunday Apr 28 2024
D6Thursday Apr 25 2024 - Friday Apr 26 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
000 ACUS48 KWNS 200900 SWOD48 SPC AC 200859 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Intermountain West on Tuesday into the Rockies on Wednesday. At the surface, a large high pressure area is forecast to move across the southeastern U.S. In the wake of the high, moisture return will likely take place across the southern and central Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. It appears that elevated thunderstorms may develop on the northern edge of the moist sector as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms could be associated with a severe threat, having a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, predictability remains low concerning any specific scenario, mainly due to the presence of the upper-level ridge. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... By Thursday, the models have a moist airmass in place across most of the southern and central Plains. The upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the Desert Southwest. As this feature approaches the central U.S., isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible to the east of a dryline from northwest Texas northward into west-central Kansas. The primary threats would be isolated large hail and wind damage, although an isolated tornado threat would also be possible. On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the southern and central Plains extending into the Upper Midwest. This would be the favored area for scattered severe storms Friday afternoon and evening. On Saturday, some model solutions suggest a large-scale upper-level trough will develop over the southwestern U.S., with southwest mid-level flow remaining in place over much of the south-central U.S. Although spread among the solutions is somewhat large by Saturday, the models suggest a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across parts of the south-central states. Storms that develop within this airmass would have potential to be severe. However, predictability at this range remains too low to outlook a threat area. ..Broyles.. 04/20/2024

Day 2

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