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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Feb 23 2019 12:38 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230523
SPC AC 230522

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop today from
the Arklatex region and lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Tornadoes, wind damage and
isolated large hail will be possible across much of the area.

...Significant tornado and wind damage event expected across parts
of the lower to mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today...

...Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Tennessee and Ohio
A well organized negatively-tilted upper-level trough will move
across the southern Plains today as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet
moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will
gradually deepen and move northeastward across the central Plains
into the lower Missouri Valley. A surface trough is forecast to
extend southward into the lower Mississippi Valley with a moist
airmass located across the region. Surface dewpoints in the upper
60s and lower 70s F will overspread northern Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas and most of Mississippi by midday. At the start of the
period, a cluster of thunderstorms should be ongoing from northern
Mississippi into western and middle Tennessee. The stronger storms
embedded in the cluster may have an isolated severe threat. This
activity is forecast to move northeastward away the moderate risk
area allowing for the moist sector to warm up late this morning. In
response, a corridor of moderate instability is expected to be in
place by midday from northeast Louisiana into far southeast Arkansas
and western Tennessee. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
southern Plains upper-level trough, thunderstorms are forecast to
develop during the morning along the surface trough in the Arklatex
with this convection moving northeastward into southeastern Arkansas
by midday. More isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the
moist sector from northern Louisiana into north-central Mississippi.
During the early to mid afternoon, convective coverage should
increase with scattered thunderstorms moving east-northeastward
across the Enhanced and Moderate Risk areas.

RAP forecast soundings across the Moderate Risk area from
north-central Mississippi into southwest Tennessee at 21Z show
moderate instability and impressive kinematic profiles. MLCAPE is
forecast to be from 1000 to 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to
55 kt range. This will support supercell formation with cells that
remain discrete. In addition, hodographs are long and looped with
0-3 km storm relative helicity values in the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range.
This low-level shear environment will be favorable for tornadoes. A
potential for long-track significant tornadoes will exist across the
Moderate Risk area from late this morning through much of the
afternoon. Wind damage and isolated large hail will also be possible
with supercells. A squall-line is also expected to develop and move
across the Enhanced and Moderate risk areas during the late
afternoon and early evening. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a
few tornadoes will also be possible with the stronger thunderstorms
embedded in the line. This squall-line with wind damage potential
should move across middle Tennessee and north-central Alabama during
the evening.

Further north across the Ohio Valley, scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to move northeastward into western Kentucky and southern
Indiana during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z for Paducah
show MLCAPE near 800 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 65 kt. This combined
with strong low-level shear will be sufficient for severe storms
capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage. Most of the severe
convection should remain south of the Ohio River. Due to the weaker
instability in the Ohio Valley, severe coverage is expected to be

..Broyles/Bentley.. 02/23/2019


Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: and Rick Curly:

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