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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jul 8 2020 9:48 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 081959
SWODY1
SPC AC 081957

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest,
with other severe thunderstorms possible across parts of New England
through early evening.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Categorical and probabilistic lines have been adjusted in an attempt
to better account for the progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic
features, and latest trends concerning destabilization, which will
impact convective potential through the remainder of the period.

The most substantive convective potential still appears focused in
association with strongest ongoing destabilization beneath a plume
of warm and initially capping elevated mixed-layer air extending
across the central high plains through the middle Missouri Valley
and Upper Midwest.  This is on the southern periphery of broad
mid-level troughing gradually shifting east-northeastward within the
mid-latitude westerlies, near/north of the Montana/North Dakota
international border area.

Within surface troughing, just to the southeast of a weak cold
front, the axis of strongest ongoing surface heating extends from
roughly west/southwest of North Platte NE through areas southeast of
Valentine NE, to a weak surface low migrating northeastward into
west central Minnesota.  The remnants of an outflow boundary, 
northeast of the low into northwest Wisconsin, appear to be shifting
northeastward.  Stable air to the northeast of the outflow boundary
will probably minimize severe potential, while storms initiate
within the axis of stronger heating.

Forcing for ascent associated with the primary mid-level short wave
trough may remain displaced to the northwest of the frontal zone. 
However, a more subtle impulse is currently progressing across
southeastern Wyoming and probably will aid the initiation of
scattered storms by 22-23Z.  By 02-03Z, nocturnal southerly
low-level jet strengthening across the southern through central high
plains is expected to contribute to an upscale growing,
southeastward propagating cluster of storms across parts of central
Nebraska into northern Kansas.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020/

...Central Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon along and ahead of the cold front across northern
Nebraska, and also within the low-level upslope-flow regime across
the central High Plains including southeast Wyoming/Nebraska
Panhandle. Large hail and damaging gusts will be possible. 

A weakness in mid-level flow should lead to clustering of convection
rather quickly, though a few initial are possible beneath initially
strong anvil-level winds. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates, peak
MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg are expected, decreasing gradually
with southward extent and time, in proximity to stronger ridging and
warmer temperatures aloft. With time, a pronounced/well-organized
quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) is expected to aggregate and
organize a cold pool, propelling it southeastward across Nebraska
into Kansas, with potentially widespread severe wind and some hail
likely continuing tonight. This complex of storms may remain well
organized through much of the late-night hours as it spreads
generally southeastward.

...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
The remnants of a long-lived MCS continue to slowly weaken across
the western Lake Superior vicinity/northwest Wisconsin at late
morning. The exact impacts and details of recovery in the wake of
this MCS are still a bit uncertain, but outflow across southern
Minnesota should gradually decay/shift northward later today, with
strong destabilization plausible as far north as north-central
Minnesota, aided by a diurnally strong low-level jet/warm advection
preceding a slow-southeastward-moving cold front. 

Initial thunderstorm development this afternoon will be most
probable in vicinity of a weak surface wave/nearby warm front
extending across north-central/northeast Minnesota into western
Wisconsin. Pending the details of destabilization,
severe-weather/supercell potential should be maximized within the
corridor with deep-layer/low-level shear also expected to maximize
in these areas. All severe facets may occur including severe hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado risk.

Other more isolated severe thunderstorms should develop near the
cold front as extends southwestward across west-central/southwest
Minnesota into southwest South Dakota within a very unstable/modest
shear environment.

...New England/Northeast States...
The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max. The strongest combination of deep-layer shear
(30-40 kt) and moderate destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) is expected across Vermont/New Hampshire and western Maine
this afternoon, particularly in vicinity of a warm
front/differential heating zone. As surface-based storms
develop/intensify this afternoon, this corridor should yield
sustained multicells and possibly some supercells, with damaging
winds/severe hail potential. Other more episodic severe
thunderstorms, with wind damage as the primary hazard, will be
possible across additional portions of the Northeast/southern New
England.

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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