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Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

More SPC info on this site: 

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jun 14 2021 11:33 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 140540
SWODY1
SPC AC 140539

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic this afternoon and
evening. Marginally severe wind and hail will also be possible in
parts of the upper Ohio Valley, Carolinas and High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Upper Ohio Valley/Carolinas...
An upper-level trough will move southeastward across the Great Lakes
region today as a cold front advances southeastward into the central
Appalachian Mountains. Ahead of the front, a surface low will move
eastward into the Mid Atlantic as a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture takes shape across the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F, which will
result in the development of moderate instability during the
afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that convection will first
initiate to the northeast of the low during the morning near Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario. Convective coverage should gradually expand
along and ahead of the front from western Pennsylvania into central
New York. This convection is forecast to develop into a cluster of
thunderstorms, moving southeastward across southeast New York and
north-central Pennsylvania during the late afternoon and early
evening. The development of a quasi-linear convective system will be
possible as this convection moves southeast into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, as is suggested by many of the new CAM solutions.

RAP forecast soundings at 03Z along the path of the projected QLCS
near Philadelphia have moderate instability, steep low to mid-level
lapse rates and relatively strong deep-layer shear. MLCAPE is
forecast to peak near 2000 J/Kg with 0-6 km shear around 50 kt. This
will likely be favorable for severe storms along the leading edge of
the QLCS. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will be
possible from late afternoon to the mid evening as the QLCS moves
across the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts and hail be the primary
threats.

The severe threat should be more isolated with southward extent due
to less forcing and deep-layer shear. In spite of the less favorable
environment across the Carolinas, a marginal wind damage threat will
still be possible, mainly due to the moist airmass and very steep
low-level lapse rates. 

...Central and Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the central Rockies
and northern High Plains today. Moderate to strong instability is
again forecast to develop this afternoon from eastern Colorado to
southeast Montana, along and just to the east of the ridge. In spite
of a lack of large-scale ascent, convection is expected to initiate
in the High Plains along the western edge of the stronger
instability. A few storms could persist and move eastward across the
High Plains. In spite of the warm air aloft, directional shear and
steep lapse rates will exist in the low to mid-levels. This could be
enough for a marginal wind damage and hail threat during the late
afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Moore.. 06/14/2021

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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