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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Sep 20 2021 10:40 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 200602
SWODY1
SPC AC 200600

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the
Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes southward to the Ozark
Plateau area this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough extending from central Canada south to the Rockies
at the start of the period will move steadily eastward across the
Great Plains states with time.  Stout ridging ahead of the trough --
over eastern NOAM -- will be shunted gradually eastward in tandem
with the advance of the trough.

Accompanying the upper trough will be a seasonably strong surface
cold front -- initially stretching from Minnesota to Kansas, and
then continuing westward across the Four Corners region.  The front
will advance steadily eastward/southeastward, such that by the end
of the period, the boundary should stretch from the Upper Great
Lakes south-southwestward to Texas.  The advancing front will serve
as a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity, with some severe
weather risk expected -- particularly during the afternoon and
evening hours.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes south across the
Ozarks...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing in the vicinity
of the advancing cold front at the start of the period, particularly
from the Mid Missouri Valley northward, likely reaching a minimum in
coverage/intensity mid to late morning.

As diurnal heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer leads to
gradual airmass destabilization, a steady uptick in convection is
expected to begin by early afternoon -- initially over the Upper
Mississippi Valley vicinity.  Aided by moderately strong deep-layer
flow, a few stronger storms will likely become capable of producing
locally gusty winds and marginal hail.

By late afternoon, storms will likely be growing upscale linearly,
with a fairly well-organized line of storms extending from western
Wisconsin to eastern Iowa likely evolving by sunset.  While local
severe risk will exist across a broad zone extending from the
U.S./Canada border southward across the Ozarks, greatest potential
-- likely in the form of locally damaging winds -- should evolve
across portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity.
 This possible concentration of risk appears sufficient to warrant
upgrade to SLGT risk at this time.  Threat should maximize during
through mid evening, before gradually diminishing diurnally through
midnight and the early overnight hours.

..Goss/Jirak.. 09/20/2021

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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