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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Apr 24 2018 2:03 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 241254
SWODY1
SPC AC 241252

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across northwest Texas and
vicinity during the evening and overnight.  Isolated strong-severe
storms also may occur today over parts of eastern North Carolina.

...Synopsis...
Downstream from a mean ridge over the Pacific Coast States, a
progressive mid/upper-level pattern will continue, featuring three
primary shortwave perturbations:
1.  Closed cyclone -- now centered over the middle TN/central KY
area -- forecast to shift eastward to western/central NC and devolve
to an open wave overnight.  The late-period acceleration of this
feature will be related to the next.
2.  A northwest-flow, northern-stream shortwave trough -- now
evident in moisture-channel imagery from northwestern ON
southwestward to eastern ND.  This feature will progress
east-southeastward across much of northern/central ON and the upper
Great Lakes through the period, with a strong/basal vorticity maxima
likely developing over Lower MI late tonight.
3.  Another northwest-flow trough, currently extending from the
Dakotas to near the southern ID border.  Though initially phased
with trough #2, the former will break away toward the Great Lakes as
this one shifts southeastward to the central Great Plains.  An
embedded/closed 500-mb low may form over western SD today and dig
south-southeastward across western NE tonight.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front -- related to both
of the northwest-flow perturbations aloft -- from northeastern ON
southwestward across Upper MI to a weak wave low over northeastern
NE.  The front then arched across south-central NE, extreme western
KS, and southeastern CO.  By 00Z, this front should reach central
QC, Lake Huron, eastern IA, eastern KS, the southern TX
Panhandle/northern South Plains region, and eastern NM.  By 12Z, the
cold front should extend over eastern PA -- where it nearly merges
with the surface cyclone now over the southern Appalachians -- to
eastern KY, northern AR, southeastern OK, west-central TX and
southeastern NM.  In the Southeast, an occluded front extended from
the low to a triple point over central SC, with cold front offshore
GA then over central FL, and warm front over eastern SC and south of
the NC coast.  These boundaries will move northeastward across the
remainder of the eastern Carolinas through the period -- the warm
sector remaining small over land until the triple point moves
offshore from northeastern NC tonight.

...Northwest TX/extreme southwestern OK...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this
afternoon on higher elevations west of the Cap rock -- generally
along or just west of a PVW-MAF line -- in a regime of strong
surface heating/mixing, related removal of MLCINH, and strengthening
low-level convergence near a developing dryline -- south of the cold
front.  This activity will move into an air mass characterized by
steep low/middle-level lapse rates and 40s F surface dew points,
resulting in 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE.  Thunderstorms will be high-based,
offering the potential for sporadic hail and strong-severe gusts
atop a deep mixed layer.  Some potential exists for upscale growth
into a cluster or arc of outflow-dominant convection this evening,
albeit moving into an airmass that will be characterized by
increasing MLCINH both with time and eastward extent off the Cap
rock.  The main concern would be damaging gusts until activity
weakens mid-late evening.

The hail risk, in aggregate, covers two separate convective regimes
that may overlap spatially:
1.  The early stages of the afternoon/evening activity, while it
still is relatively discrete, and
2.  Isolated to widely scattered, elevated thunderstorms that may
develop tonight atop the outflow pool from the initial convective
episode, over parts of the northwest TX/Big Country region below the
Caprock.  Although deep shear will remain small during the first
phase -- generally below 30 kt based on forecast soundings -- it
should strengthen overnight as the central Plains shortwave trough
approaches closer, with associated tightening height gradients
moving over the area.  Forecast soundings suggest elevated MUCAPE
500-800 J/kg and 40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting
isolated severe hail in any sustained storms that can organize over
the cold pool.

...Eastern NC...
A swath of clouds/precip with isolated embedded thunderstorms will
move northward to northeastward over and out of eastern NC through
the early/middle part of the afternoon.  Behind this activity,
widely scattered surface-based thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon, in a narrow corridor bounded by the warm and cold fronts
characterized by weak frontal lift, but also, small MLCINH and
favorable diabatic surface heating.  The latter should overcome
marginally unstable midlevel lapse rates -- amidst a corridor of
favorably rich low-level moisture -- to support 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE.  Forecast soundings show modest deep shear except in the
immediate warm-frontal zone, where backed surface winds and enlarged
hodographs also may contribute enough low-level shear and hodograph
size to support storm-scale rotation (whether in supercell or bow
mode).  At this time, lack of stronger lift/buoyancy cast
uncertainty on coverage, and unconditional severe potential
(damaging gust or tornado) remains marginal.

..Edwards/Peters.. 04/24/2018

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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