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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Aug 17 2018 6:37 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171631
SPC AC 171630

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z


Threat for severe storms with damaging wind is expected primarily
over the Northeast States as well as the lower Mississippi Valley
this afternoon. Other more isolated strong to severe storms are
possible over the central and northern Rockies.

...Northeast States...

Widespread showers accompanying a low-amplitude lead shortwave
trough will move through New England through midday and early
afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, partial clearing in
the wake of the morning showers will promote destabilization of the
very moist boundary layer, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. A belt
of modest southwest winds aloft with 25-35 kt between 850-500 mb
exists between the leading impulse and a more substantial shortwave
trough centered over Lake MI. The more significant destabilization
will occur between these two systems, and given minimal cap and
moist thermodynamic profiles, storms are expected to redevelop
during the afternoon from central PA through central NY and spread
east. Lake breezes, the higher terrain and residual boundaries will
all serve as potential initiating mechanisms. While vertical shear
will remain weak promoting multicell storm modes, activity will be
embedded within sufficient flow for a threat for locally strong wind
gusts as low-level lapse rates steepen. Stronger low-level shear is
present in vicinity of a warm front currently located from southern
New England through eastern NY, but instability along and north of
this boundary will likely remain limited.

...Lower Mississippi Valley region...

Storms continue developing along southward-advancing outflow
boundary across west central through central AR. As of late morning
updrafts remain elevated on cool side of this boundary. However,
temperatures are warming through the 80s F over the southern half of
the state where dewpoints are in the low 70s, and MLCAPE should
climb to 2500-3000 J/kg this afternoon. Storms will remain embedded
in weak vertical shear, but with 20-30 kt west-northwest winds
between 850-500 mb within base of an upper trough. This environment
should support few severe multicells with line segments along the
outflow boundary as low-level lapse rates steepen and storms become
surface based this afternoon. 

...Central/southern High Plains...

Scattered primarily afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the Front Range, foothills and adjacent elevated terrain,
moving east-southeastward to southeastward over the adjoining High
Plains for a few hours before weakening this evening.  The mature
phases of this activity will pose a risk for isolated severe
gusts/hail. A narrow meridional corridor of preconvective MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/kg is progged to develop amidst steep low/middle-level
lapse rates and adequate residual moisture.  Forecast vertical wind
profiles show pronounced veering with height (directional shear);
however, low/middle-level speeds will be weak, limiting bulk shear.
Still, given the steep lapse rates and a belt of 40-50-kt
anvil-level flow forecast to cross the area north of the anticyclone
aloft, some of the convection may become organized, with aggregated
outflow production possible.

...ID and vicinity...

Favorable destabilization is expected following morning
clouds/convection to support additional/afternoon development. 
The approaching mid/upper-level trough will yield increasing
large-scale ascent/cooling aloft related to DCVA and lift in the
left-exit region of a cyclonically curved upper-level jet streak. 
As the associated steepening of mid/upper lapse rates spreads over a
diabatically heated/destabilized boundary layer, sufficient
low-level moisture should remain through the mixing process to
support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A narrow corridor of favorable
buoyancy also may develop over portions of northern ID and western
MT ahead of morning convection persisting into afternoon.  Also,
mainly over the southern part of the outlook area where mid/upper
winds will be strongest, increasing deep shear is forecast. 
Well-mixed subcloud layers will promote a predominant threat of
isolated severe gusts.  Dry lightning also is possible under young
bases and off the edge of cores in this regime for fire-threat
purposes; see the SPC day-1 fire-weather outlook for more details.

..Dial/Gleason.. 08/17/2018


Day 3

Day 4

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