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11 hrs 8 min 3 sec
of Daylight Today
46.4% Day 53.6% Night Which is
2 min 39 sec Longer
Than Yesterday

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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Feb 26 2024 11:44 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261935
SPC AC 261934

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z


Isolated late-night hail is possible across parts of the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley.

...20Z Update...

...Midwest into Lower MI...
Conditional threat for elevated supercells capable of large hail
described in the previous outlook (appended below) remains valid.
Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased
enough across bring the 5% hail probability south into northern KY.
Environmental conditions in this area are similar to those farther
north, and should support isolated hail with any deeper convective
cores. Overall storm coverage is still expected to remain isolated,
precluding the need to increase probabilities.

..Mosier.. 02/26/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024/

A mid-level trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest today with
a mostly zonal mid-level pattern across the eastern CONUS. Within
that zonal flow, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley late tonight and could result in some
thunderstorms capable of large hail. 

A gradual strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated through
the day today from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes as a
mid-level trough advances eastward. This will lead to poleward
moisture transport centered around 850mb. This moist plume combined
with very steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates will lead to
increasing elevated instability during the overnight period. 

Convective initiation remains the primary question during the
overnight period. A trough is present at both 850mb and 500mb in 12Z
guidance, but they are not quite phased. This leads to
weakening/veering 850mb flow during the period when height falls and
500mb dCVA arrives across the region. This is likely an explanatory
factor for the lack of storm coverage by most CAM guidance.
Nonetheless, global guidance continues to show significant
convective precipitation from southern Michigan to northern

Given 1000 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 45-50 knots
(highest across southern Indiana), a conditional threat for elevated
supercells capable of large hail exists tonight. Have expanded the
marginal risk farther south in Indiana to account for this threat.
It is worth mentioning there is at least some threat farther south
into Kentucky where strong instability and shear are present which
would support supercells also. However, have confined the marginal
risk to areas where better mid-level support is expected early
Tuesday morning.


Day 3

Day 4

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